Monday, March 31, 2008

Janko Tipsarevic - Thomas Johansson


Janko Tipsarevic - Thomas Johansson: Johansson@2.06 betfair

Again going against Tipsarevic , even though he performed well against Verdasco.Odds are ok , since Johansson had a great week so far, even though he had some problems this year.
Head to head is 2-0, the most recent game was in 2007 , won by Thomas in 2 sets ( see details).
Tipsarevin never impressed me with his style of play, he has a lot of power in his game, very good serve, but lacks in concentration and has a mediocre backhand.
Johansson on the other hand has a excellent serve, decent groundstrokes and even though his movement around the field isn't the best , he can still play decent against anyone.
The performance agaisnt Ferrer was quite impressive, even if Ferrer was clearly in a bad day.
Thomas is 10-9 against big servers this season and has an overall 10-6 record at Miami.Janko does not cope well against big servers , being 8-10 this season and 21-29 overall.

Johansson to win @2.06 betfair

Sunday, March 30, 2008

P.H Mathieu - Carlos Moya


P.H Mathieu - Carlos Moya :Mathieu@1.90 sportingbet

One year ago , this encounter would have had a different favourite. Moya is from my point of view on a downtrend lately , and the hard season is making him problems. I cannot imagine how he won against Ginepri last week , although he gave him 22 break opportunities. It is true, he saved 20 of them, but this is Ginepri's fault.
Head to head is 1-3, Moya winning the last 3 games, but let's take the last game,lost by Mathieu 6-7 6-7 4-6, the difference between the total points won was only 7 points, in a 3 set match, so the game was pretty close, the difference being made at the important points.
Mathieu has the bigger serve , but is not the better player in the backhand or forehand department. He should cover the field better, and should take every opportunity Moya will for sure give him. Moya defeated Mahut , in 2 balanced sets, while Mathieu had a problematic game against young Cilic, coming from a set down.

I'm on Mathieu to overcome legend Moya, in maybe 3 tight sets @1.90 sportingbet

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Fernando Verdasco -Janko Tipsarevic


Fernando Verdasco -Janko Tipsarevic :Verdasco @2 bodog

Bodog offering the biggest price here, in what I can call a really balanced game.Tipsarevic leads 1-0 , with a victory at the Australian Open in 3 very close sets( details)
Verdasco won only 41% of his second serves in that encounter.Interesting is that Verdasco had 15 aces in that match , while Tipsarevic , who is rated with the bigger served only 8.
Verdasco had some good results in this period, only loosing to Haas and Murray , but taking a set from each . He plays very well against big servers like Tipsarevic , being 31-19 agasint them, while Tipsarevic does not cope well with left hnad players, being 5-4 this season against lefties.Janko was in trouble against Lu in the first round showing a totally different game than the one proved agasint Federer at the Ausie Open.

Odds are worth taking, Verdasco @2 bodog

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Augustin Calleri - Kevin Anderson


Augustin Calleri - Kevin Anderson :Calleri @2.1 betfair

Anderson is highly overrated since his result in Las Vegas. Calleri can handle in a good day any player on the tour, but can also loose to anyone. Anderson, we all know , has a strong service, but can't usully keep the same level for a long time.
Calleri is more than decent on return , good serve , groundstrokes. Augustin has not played since Acapulco.Also he is 8-11 against big servers , 8-7 on hard court and a long experience at Miami , with a 13-7 record.Had 3 quater final apparences here , the last one in 2006.

Calleri is value and should be taken into consideration against someone who has only 12 atp games and 3 master series matches.
Calleri@2.1 betfair

Sunday, March 23, 2008

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Thursday, March 20, 2008

Andreas Seppi - Robin Haase


Andreas Seppi - Robin Haase :Seppi@1.78 betfair


Usually don't bet on challengers, but it seems that this week is hard to predict winners at the Indian Wells.
Head to head is 1-0 , Vienna 2007 ,Seppi won in 2 sets. Haase is in my eyes a little bit overrated as he performs well only near his home country, and excluding Rotterdam tournament has not accomplished anything notable.
Seppi on the other hand had an impressive win over Nadal in Rotterdam , and was decent agasint Djokovic in Dubai.
Moderate stakes as with challengers you never know.
Seppi to win@1.78 betfair

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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Juan Carlos Ferrero -David Nalbandian


Juan Carlos Ferrero -David Nalbandian :Ferrero + 1.5 game handicap@1.91 pinnacle

Head to head is 3-2 in favour of Ferrero, who also won the last 3 encounters. Their last game was at the Australian Open where Ferrero won 6-1 6-2 6-3, as an underdog.
Nalbandian should have lost yesterday as he was down 5-3 in the first set, but won it, lost 6-0 the second, and was 5-4 in the third set, with Stepanek serving with the match.
Ferrero served impressively agasint Ancic and saved 2 match points in the third set tie-break. Nalbandian seemed to shaky on serve yesterday , so taday I will choose Ferrero. This could easily go in three sets, so I choose the safer option , with handicap.
Ferrero +1.5 games@1.91 pinnacle

Richard Gasquet - James Blake


Richard Gasquet - James Blake :Gasquet@1.72 betfair

Picked this since yesterday, as Gasquet played brilliantly against Chela, giving him no chances. Blake had some moments of confusion agasint Moya that could have easily cost him the victory.
Head to head is 2-0 in favour if Gasquet who managed to win all 4 sets with one break ahead. The stats show that both players will concede a lot of break points and this is where the difference will be made. Blake's serve is stronger, he is also at home, but Gasquet has the better backhand , and the better game from the back of the court.
This will not be an easy match, but I expect Richard to win, maybe in a 3 setter.
Gasquet@1.72 betfair

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Nikolay Davydenko - Mardy Fish


Nikolay Davydenko - Mardy Fish :Davydenko 2-0@2.20 sportingbet


Somewhere in the past I said I will never bet on Davydenko's games.It was after the Arguello-Davydenko match...Now Davydenko meets Fish on hard court, after defeating strong server Isner. Davydenko is as we all know a great returner , and even though his service isn't always as it should be , he will have enough opportunities on Fish's second serve. Head to head is 1-0, with only 49 % forst serve percentage for Fish in that encounter.
Fish isn't impressive at all in the last period , while Davydenko seems to have recovered his rhythm.
My only concern is about Davydenko's "motivation", but being a Master Series I doubt he will do something "fishy".

Davydenko 2-0@2.20 sportinbet

Monday, March 17, 2008

Richard Gasquet - Juan Ignacio Chela


Richard Gasquet - Juan Ignacio Chela :Under 22 games@1.90 gamebookers

The limit is very generous as the odds are droping for the under.Also the limit is 21 or 21.5 in other bookmakers. The reason I am choosing under is that I believe Gasquet should have no problems getting pass Chela. Defeated easily on fire Soderling , showing excellent game from the baseline and constant good service. Chela recovered being 6-7 3-5 and managed to save some match points against Tursunov. Today Gasquet should not make the same mistakes and take all the chances Chela will give him.His second service is mediocre, lacking power.

I expect Gasquet to win this easily and even an 7-5 6-3 is a winner here.
Under 22 games@1.90 gamebookers

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Jarkko Nieminen - H.T Lee


Jarkko Nieminen - H.T Lee : Nieminen @1.91 betfair


This game stars with a question mark:Is Nieminen healthy? He had a powerfull flu/virus at the start of March and that had a great influence in his game, being defeated easily by Verdasco and Rochus.
If we will have a healthy Nieminen today I am confident he will overcome Lee. Although Lee had an important win ofer Llodra in the first round, he still did not impress with his results this season.Also I should say that Lee has not reached the third round in any of the last 8 tournaments he participated.
Head to head is 2-0 for Nieminen , but the last meeting was back in 2005.
Lee is 3-6 at Indian Wells, and 19-26 against lefties, but 4-1 in his last 5 games against left hand players.
I have a great respect for Lee , he always showed fighting spirit in his games, but today he will have a hard matchup against Nieminen.

Nieminen@1.91 betfair

Monday, March 10, 2008

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Sunday, March 9, 2008

Kevin Anderson -Samuel Querrey


Kevin Anderson -Samuel Querrey : Anderson@2.50 Victor Chandler

This could be easily called the battle of the serves.Both Anderson and Querrey have strong serves and all their game is based in winning points with the help of the serve.This has been an interesting start of season, with Tsonga reaching the final at the Australian Open, Llodra winning Adelaide and Rotterdam , the unknown Russian winning Zagreb in front of "home boy" Ljubicic...and now, from nowhere Anderson.
He played only 2 games at the Atp level prior to this tournament, loosing both.This is his first year as professional player. He defeated two big servers, Llodra and Isner, then Ginepri and Korolev.Also won against Zverev in the qualifiers. I really hope he still has the energy to win this, fitness being my only concern related to Anderson.
Querrey had a slow start this season, but reached this week his first Atp level. He defeated Grosjean in the first round , saving one match point, and then won against Kiefer and Canas.
His serve worked perfectly , but I think today he will make more errors and this will give Anderson the victory.
Head to head record is 0-1, one match last year won in 3 sets by Querrey.
This is a 50-50 match ,and I choose the in form player with the better odds.

Anderson@2.50 victor chandler

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Andy Roddick -Feliciano Lopez


Andy Roddick -Feliciano Lopez : under 23.5 games@1.83 sportingbet


The limit is higher than tha average from other bookmakers. Under 23.5 includes a 7-6 6-4 win, and I highly doubt this will go in a 3rd set. Roddick served excellent this week , and although I was opposing him , I must reckon he did a good job. Lopez was over his normal level this week , and managed to win confortably against Ferrer. Had a great recovery against Davydenko yesterday. Head to head is 3-0 , but none of the games finished in over 23 games. This should be a very well balanced game, and taking into consideration Roddick serves like he did with Nadal and Djokovic, he will hold serve easily, while Lopez will have some problems on his second serve, which Roddick should capitalize.

Under 23.5 games sportingbet

Friday, March 7, 2008

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Thursday, March 6, 2008

Rafael Nadal - Andy Roddick


Rafael Nadal - Andy Roddick :Nadal @1.72 betfair

Roddick seems to be a liitle bit overrated here, as I cannot see Roddick win here, taking into consideration he struggled against Guccione , Fish , and lost against Soderling in the last weeks.
Yes Nadal has regressed on hard in the last period, but he still is world number 2 and this is for a reason.He lost the first set to Kohlschreiber , but, Phillip was just great, and did not manage to keep the same level for all the game.They have met 3 times, the last 2 won by Nadal, and the first one by Roddick in 2004 when Nadal was ranked 54. Roddick will have some cheap points on his serve , but Nadal should have the better game from the back of the field and this should give him the edge.
Nadal @1.72 betfair

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

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Jurgen Melzer -Amer Delic


Jurgen Melzer -Amer Delic :Melzer@1.79 betfair

Let me remaind you about Melzer -Isner, or maybe about Melzer -Karlovic.Same story here , the only variable is Delic. Melzer can handle very well big servers, and being left hander has an advantage over Delic. Head to head is 1-0 , the only encounter was in 2005, won by Melzer in 2 easy sets. Delic has performed well in challenger level , but hasn't any impressive results in the atp tournaments. Melzer on the other hand is decent, and loves Las Vegas, reaching the final last year. He has points to defend and the first step will be to overcome home boy Delic .

Melzer@1.79 betfair

Potito Starace -Carlos Berlocq


Potito Starace -Carlos Berlocq :Berlocq@2.84

I'm taking the dog in a 50-50 match.Both suit better clay , but Berlocq has had the better results playing on hard.Starace has not played on hard since the Us Open in 2007 , while Berlocq had a decent game in the first round at the Australian Open, loosing to Monaco , in 3 well ballanced sets.Also , he has a final in a challenger , lost to Alves at the start of the year, on hard.
Head to head is 2-0 for Starace, but both games were on clay, and the most recent is in 2005. I expect Berlocq to keep close, and challenge the italian.
Berlocq to win @2.84

Monday, March 3, 2008

Benjamin Becker -Nicolas Kiefer



Benjamin Becker -Nicolas Kiefer :Kiefer 2-0@2.52 betfair


Head to head record:0-0. Benjamin lost a couple of days ago to Darcis 6-1 6-0!!Kiefer's results this year are not impressive at all, being defeated by Ferrero , and withdraw from Doha.Still I cannot see Kiefer loosing this, if the is fit and heathy.Becker is mediocre and has never showed otherwise.His only moment of glory was when he managed to defeat Agassi , in his last official game. Has a good service, but makes a lot of unforced errors. Kiefer is great at the net, strong serve, and excellent forehand. All my concerns are related to Kiefer's fitness. If he's ok he should have no problems going into the next round, where he will probably met Grosjean.

Kiefer 2-0@2.52 betfair

Sam Querrey -Sebastian Grosjean


Sam Querrey -Sebastian Grosjean :Grosjean @1.84 betfair

Way to high odds for Grosjean here..Querrwy is no better than Isner or Karlovic on return and agaisnt Grosjean he will have problems keeping the game in-play.Head to head is 0-0 .
Grosjean has a great overall game, strong service, good backhand, and mental stability. Querrey on the other hand has only the service in his advantage, and poor grandstrokes. Lost to Gremelmayr and Bjorkman and struggled with Russel. Grosjean has not played since his defeat against Wawrinka, although he was the better player in that game.
Big confidence in this.
Grosjean to win@1.84 betfair

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