Roger Federer - James Blake

Roger Federer - James Blake :Will Roger Federer (SUI) serve more than 20 aces? NO@1.79

Very nice bet , involving Federer and Blake. I've made a little research work and found something interesting. Even though Federer leads 7-0 the head to head record, and lost only one set from 19 played, he never served more than 11 aces in a match agasint Blake.Federer served an average of 7.5 aces per match , in 3 out of 5 sets, with Blake. Without doubt , Federer will have an easy match against Blake, and even if Blake manages to get one set, the margin will be enough. This is more a statistical bet, but even if we take into consideration the last matches, Federer served only 68 aces in 4 games, including a 5set thriller against Tipsarevic.Let's take a look of the serve statistics for Federer so far: 11 against Berdych,11 against Hartfield and 39 agaisnt Tipsarevic!!!!But Tipsarevic can't even be said to be a decent returner.
Blake faced 6 aces from Cilic,4 from Grosjean,2 from Russel and 6 from Massu.
I have big confidence in this, going maximum stake.

Will Roger Federer (SUI) serve more than 20 aces? NO@1.79

J W Tsonga - Richard Gasquet

J W Tsonga - Richard Gasquet :Tsonga +4.5 game handicap @1.85 gamebookers

Tsonga is given 4.5 games advantage in a 60/40 encounter. The way I see it this could go either way. Tsonga ealily won agasint Murray and Garcia Lopez , while Gasquet had some problems , even loosing a set to a top 230+ player in the first round. Tsonga progressed a lot since his comeback , managing to win important games against important players. H2h is 2-1 for Gasquet , last game lost by Tsonga 7-5 7-6, with Tsonga winning 6-4 6-4 their 2nd encounter. Gasquet is a perfect all around player , good forehand , backhand , service and good play from the baseline, but even though , I expect Tsonga to keep it close and even win . Tie-breaks are expected which could help keeping the handicap advantage.
Tsonga +4.5@1.85 gamebookers

Fernando Gonzalez - Marin Cilic

Fernando Gonzalez - Marin Cilic :Gonzalez -2.5 game handicap@1.83 sportingbet

I'll start by saying the handicap is 4.5 at the other bookmakers. Even I opposed Cilic 2 times before , and was wrong , I feel 3rd time will be with more luck. Yes Cilic had a great run, but he only defeated Almagro and Melzer , can't realy say he had an extraordinary result . Gonzalez has the better forehand, better service , and only needs consistency to defeat the young Cilic. Had a slow start against Lee , but came back in the game and won 3-1. Fernando had a bad start, loosing to Safin and Baghdatis at Kooyong .Cilic hasn't won a single match agaisnt top 10 players in his hole career (well he did , but against Davydenko , but it was a scandal about those games, the main ideea being Davy hadn't played at his best).
I expekt Cilic to maybe win a set, but the experience of Gonzalez should prevail .
Gonzalez -2.5 game handicap@1.83 sportingbet

Easy money -Australian Open Day 3 and 4

8.Nieminen v Levine 1@1.08
@67u won 3-0

9.Capdeville v Mathieu 2@1.17
@72u won 1-3

10. Monaco -Delic 1@1.08 (1-0 3*-1)
@83u won 3-2

11.Baghdatis -Safin 1@1.12 (6-4 5*-4)
@90u won 3-2

Won .Mission completed succesfully.

Thomas Berdych -Oscar Hernadez

Thomas Berdych -Oscar Hernadez under 28.5 games @1.91 paddy power

No way Hernadez will make Berdych problems. I can't even figure out how did he manage to defeat Minar . His game is one of the weakest I've ever seen on hard, and even on clay he still is mediocre. Berdych on the other hand had a couple of games this year, and has performed well. They have met one time before , on clay, when Hernandez managed to get a set in the tiebreak.But this happened in 2004.
Hernandez's last games on hard :he managed to get only for games in each match , agaisnt Ferrer and Kohlshreiber.
under 28.5 games @1.91 paddy power

Marin Cilic -Jurgen Melzer

Marin Cilic -Jurgen Melzer :Melzer @2.54 betfair

Cilic is way to overrated because of this succes with Almagro . Yes has a good record on hard and a strong serve , but statistically speaking , he doesn't cope well with left hand players. He only managed to defeat Falla and a top 600+ player , as lefties , while he lost all of his other matches. Even though Melzer didn't had any important succes on hard , he likes playing agaisnt big servers , being 26-9 in his carrer against players rated as "big servers" .This will not be easy , but I expect Melzer to keep close.

Melzer@2.54 betfair

Augustin Calleri -Stefan Koubek

Augustin Calleri -Stefan Koubek :Calleri @1.91 pinnacle

Their last game will always remain in my head as one of the most incredible tennis matches I have ever saw . Calleri had 6-0 5-1 and served for the match , and then lost 6-0 5-7 6-7...incredible I must say . Calleri has the better serve, is the better player from the back of the court, has the better return. His only problem will be staying focused, and if it's the case , not to give up being a set behind. Koubek will have more problems than with Moya as I rate Calleri a better player in this moment as Moya , if and only if , it's a normal day for him , not a "Calleri special day" .
Probably a thriller, but hope Calleri will have the edge.
Calleri@1.91 pinnacle

Easy money -Australian Open Day 2

5.Granville v Meusburger 2@1.20 (1-6 1-0 15*-30)
@48u won 0-2

6.Tipsarevic v Sirrianni 1@1.07 (7-5 6-2 1*-1)
@57u won 3-2

7.Grosjean v Volandri 1@1.10 (5-2*)
@61u won 3-0

Olivier Rochus -Sam Querrey

Olivier Rochus -Sam Querrey :Rochus@2.03 pinnacle

Rochus had a bad period last year, but managed to get past it, and seemed to be on the right track by the end of the season, final at Mumbai , won Orleans challenger, both on hard court. Queery had a good performance last year here, reaching 3rd round, defeating Serra and Acasuso ,but since the middle of the season hasn't showed anything special. His game is based on his strong service , but he has a lot of periods when he lacks focus, and it is enough to loose serve. Lost against poor Mayer last week , in 2 sets.Rochus has some experience here , even has a 4th round in 2005.

Will he hard, but I give Rochus the edge to win this @2.03 pinnacle

Nicholas Almagro - Marin Cilic

Nicholas Almagro - Marin Cilic :Almagro @1.93 pinnacle

Cilic is clearly talented , but lacks experience . Has played only 6 games of 3 sets, loosing all 4 last season . Had a good run in the last weeks , defeating Mahut and Haase , and lost in 2 sets in front of the future winner at Auckland. Has a powerfull serve , and decent forehand.
Almagro on the other hand, even if likes more clay, had decent results, even a third round at the Us open and a quater final at Cincinatti. Powerful serve and great mental strenght. Surely more experienced , and surely the better player , Almagro should win with Cilic winning a set though.
Almagro @1.93 pinnacle

Fabrice Santoro -John Isner

Fabrice Santoro -John Isner :Santoro @1.50 stanjames

Santoro is 20-9 against big servers since 2000 and 5-0 last season !!.He likes playing them and will cause big problems on return. Isner is very similar to Karlovic, very poor return game , and will have dificulties serving well the whole match. Santoro only needs one moment of neatention on return to win the set. Isner could win a set though , probably in a tiebreak , but the variety of Santoro's game , along with his great mobility around court should be to much for the 106 kg and 2m+ young Isner.

Very confident in this , Santoro @1.50 stanjames